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Dinamo Batumi vs Samgurali — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Samgurali
Samgurali
3/11/2024Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 3Batumi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Dinamo Batumi52%
×Draw23%
Samgurali25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Batumi
1.79
Samgurali
1.16

Dinamo Batumi creates 54% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 102 away

creates per match

Dinamo Batumi
1.93
Samgurali
1.22

allows per match

Dinamo Batumi
1.10
Samgurali
1.65

finishing

Dinamo Batumi+0.00on par
Samgurali+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Batumi ↓

Samgurali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Batumi or draw
75%
Dinamo Batumi or Samgurali
77%
Draw or Samgurali
48%

Winning margin

Dinamo Batumi wins by 2+
29%
Samgurali wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Batumi 1+ goals
83%
Dinamo Batumi 2+ goals
53%
Dinamo Batumi 3+ goals
26%
Samgurali 1+ goals
69%
Samgurali 2+ goals
32%
Samgurali 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Batumi (draw refunded)
68%
Samgurali (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Batumi at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.10 · 125 matches

Samgurali away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Batumi attack 1.93 + Samgurali defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.79

Samgurali attack 1.22 + Dinamo Batumi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dinamo Batumi scores more
52%
level
23%
Samgurali scores more
25%

Dinamo Batumi at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dinamo Batumi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Dinamo Batumi 1–0 Samgurali

Dinamo Batumi beat Samgurali 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga on March 11, 2024.

The match was played at Batumi Arena in Batumi.