Dila 3–1 Samtredia: Result & Stats | Erovnuli Liga

Dila

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Samtredia

10/16/2021

Erovnuli Liga · Round 15Stadioni Tengiz Burjanadze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Dila56%

×Draw23%

Samtredia21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DilaExpected goals in this matchSamtredia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.99

Dila

1.78

Samtredia

0.99

Dila creates 80% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 64 away

1.56

creates per match

1.03

0.95

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Dila

1.56

Samtredia

1.03

allows per match

Dila

0.95

Samtredia

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dila+0.00on par

Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dila ↓

Samtredia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dila or draw

79%

Dila or Samtredia

77%

Draw or Samtredia

44%

Winning margin

Dila wins by 2+

31%

Samtredia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dila 1+ goals

83%

Dila 2+ goals

53%

Dila 3+ goals

26%

Samtredia 1+ goals

63%

Samtredia 2+ goals

26%

Samtredia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dila (draw refunded)

73%

Samtredia (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dila at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.95 · 128 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.00 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dila attack 1.56 + Samtredia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Samtredia attack 1.03 + Dila defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dila scores more

56%

level

23%

Samtredia scores more

21%

Dila at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff