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Dila vs Gagra — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Dila
Dila
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gagra
Gagra
11/24/2023Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 34Stadioni Tengiz Burjanadze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Dila51%
×Draw25%
Gagra23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dila
1.58
Gagra
0.98

Dila creates 61% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 84 away

creates per match

Dila
1.56
Gagra
1.02

allows per match

Dila
0.95
Gagra
1.60

finishing

Dila+0.00on par
Gagra+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dila ↓

Gagra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dila or draw
77%
Dila or Gagra
75%
Draw or Gagra
49%

Winning margin

Dila wins by 2+
27%
Gagra wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dila 1+ goals
79%
Dila 2+ goals
47%
Dila 3+ goals
21%
Gagra 1+ goals
62%
Gagra 2+ goals
26%
Gagra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dila (draw refunded)
69%
Gagra (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dila at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.95 · 128 matches

Gagra away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.60 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dila attack 1.56 + Gagra defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Gagra attack 1.02 + Dila defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dila scores more
51%
level
25%
Gagra scores more
23%

Dila at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dila 1 – 0 Gagra

Dila beat Gagra 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadioni Tengiz Burjanadze in Gori.