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Dila vs Apollon Limassol — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Dila
Dila
Preview
16:00
Apollon Limassol
Apollon Limassol
7/23/2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundTengiz Burjanadze Stadium
52%
Dila
model favours
52%25%23%

Apollon Limassol score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dila52%
×Draw25%
Apollon Limassol23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dila
1.63
Apollon Limassol
1.00

Dila creates 63% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dila
1.75
Apollon Limassol
1.00

allows per match

Dila
1.00
Apollon Limassol
1.50

finishing

Dila+0.00on par
Apollon Limassol+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dila ↓

Apollon Limassol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dila or draw
77%
Dila or Apollon Limassol
75%
Draw or Apollon Limassol
48%

Winning margin

Dila wins by 2+
28%
Apollon Limassol wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dila 1+ goals
80%
Dila 2+ goals
48%
Dila 3+ goals
22%
Apollon Limassol 1+ goals
63%
Apollon Limassol 2+ goals
26%
Apollon Limassol 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dila (draw refunded)
69%
Apollon Limassol (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dila at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Apollon Limassol away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dila attack 1.75 + Apollon Limassol defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Apollon Limassol attack 1.00 + Dila defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dila scores more
52%
level
25%
Apollon Limassol scores more
23%

Dila at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 51% of Dila’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Dila score first in only 35% of matches
  • Both teams score in 70% of Apollon Limassol’s matches
  • Dila and Apollon Limassol have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Dila
LWDLW
Limassol
DWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dila face Apollon Limassol (UEFA Europa Conference League)

UEFA Europa Conference League returns with Dila hosting Apollon Limassol. Match starts July 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dila host Apollon Limassol at Tengiz Burjanadze Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.