Dikaki 1–2 Vautour Club: Result & Stats

Dikaki

FT

1 – 2

Vautour Club

3/12/2023

Championnat D1 · Round 12Stade Mbombet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Dikaki24%

×Draw24%

Vautour Club53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DikakiExpected goals in this matchVautour Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.71

Dikaki

1.06

Vautour Club

1.71

Vautour Club creates 61% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

0.91

creates per match

1.36

2.06

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Dikaki

0.91

Vautour Club

1.36

allows per match

Dikaki

2.06

Vautour Club

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dikaki+0.00on par

Vautour Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dikaki ↓

Vautour Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dikaki or draw

47%

Dikaki or Vautour Club

76%

Draw or Vautour Club

76%

Winning margin

Dikaki wins by 2+

9%

Vautour Club wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Dikaki 1+ goals

65%

Dikaki 2+ goals

29%

Dikaki 3+ goals

9%

Vautour Club 1+ goals

82%

Vautour Club 2+ goals

51%

Vautour Club 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Dikaki (draw refunded)

31%

Vautour Club (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dikaki at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.06 · 33 matches

Vautour Club away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dikaki attack 0.91 + Vautour Club defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Vautour Club attack 1.36 + Dikaki defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dikaki scores more

24%

level

24%

Vautour Club scores more

53%

Vautour Club at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vautour Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff