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Difaa EL Jadida vs Kawkab Marrakech — Botola Pro 2025

Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
FT
1 – 1
Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
3/2/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 20Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi (El Jadida (Mazghan))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Difaa EL Jadida45%
×Draw29%
Kawkab Marrakech26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Difaa EL Jadida
1.23
Kawkab Marrakech
0.85

Difaa EL Jadida creates 45% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 35 away

creates per match

Difaa EL Jadida
1.01
Kawkab Marrakech
0.74

allows per match

Difaa EL Jadida
0.96
Kawkab Marrakech
1.46

finishing

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par
Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difaa EL Jadida ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Difaa EL Jadida or draw
74%
Difaa EL Jadida or Kawkab Marrakech
71%
Draw or Kawkab Marrakech
55%

Winning margin

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
20%
Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
71%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
35%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
13%
Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
57%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
21%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
64%
Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difaa EL Jadida at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.96 · 106 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.01 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.74 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Difaa EL Jadida scores more
45%
level
29%
Kawkab Marrakech scores more
26%

Difaa EL Jadida at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Difaa EL Jadida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
Yassine Dehbi
40'
Sekou Amadou Camara

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Difaa EL Jadida 1–1 Kawkab Marrakech

Difaa EL Jadida and Kawkab Marrakech drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on March 2, 2019.

Goals: Yassine Dehbi (38'), Sekou Amadou Camara (40').

The match was played at Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi (El Jadida (Mazghan)).