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Difaa EL Jadida vs Ittihad Tanger — Botola Pro 2025

Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
FT
1 – 0
Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
9/29/2018Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 4Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi (El Jadida (Mazghan))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Difaa EL Jadida42%
×Draw29%
Ittihad Tanger29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Difaa EL Jadida
1.19
Ittihad Tanger
0.93

Difaa EL Jadida creates 28% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 116 away

creates per match

Difaa EL Jadida
1.01
Ittihad Tanger
0.89

allows per match

Difaa EL Jadida
0.96
Ittihad Tanger
1.38

finishing

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par
Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difaa EL Jadida ↓

Ittihad Tanger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Difaa EL Jadida or draw
71%
Difaa EL Jadida or Ittihad Tanger
71%
Draw or Ittihad Tanger
58%

Winning margin

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
18%
Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
70%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
33%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
12%
Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
61%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
24%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
59%
Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difaa EL Jadida at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.96 · 106 matches

Ittihad Tanger away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.38 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.01 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.89 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Difaa EL Jadida scores more
42%
level
29%
Ittihad Tanger scores more
29%

Difaa EL Jadida at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Difaa EL Jadida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Difaa EL Jadida 1 – 0 Ittihad Tanger

Difaa EL Jadida beat Ittihad Tanger 1-0 in Botola Pro on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi (El Jadida (Mazghan)).