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Diefflen vs TuS Koblenz — Oberliga - Promotion Round 2022

Diefflen
Diefflen
FT
1 – 2
TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
4/22/2023Oberliga - Promotion RoundOberliga - Promotion Round · Rh/Pf/S - Promotion Round - 5Stadion Babelsberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Diefflen32%
×Draw28%
TuS Koblenz40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diefflen
1.10
TuS Koblenz
1.27

TuS Koblenz creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Diefflen
1.20
TuS Koblenz
1.33

allows per match

Diefflen
1.20
TuS Koblenz
1.00

finishing

Diefflen+0.00on par
TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diefflen ↓

TuS Koblenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Diefflen or draw
60%
Diefflen or TuS Koblenz
72%
Draw or TuS Koblenz
68%

Winning margin

Diefflen wins by 2+
13%
TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Diefflen 1+ goals
67%
Diefflen 2+ goals
30%
Diefflen 3+ goals
10%
TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
72%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
36%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Diefflen (draw refunded)
44%
TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diefflen at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

TuS Koblenz away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diefflen attack 1.20 + TuS Koblenz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

TuS Koblenz attack 1.33 + Diefflen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Diefflen scores more
32%
level
28%
TuS Koblenz scores more
40%

TuS Koblenz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Promotion Round: Diefflen 1–2 TuS Koblenz

TuS Koblenz beat Diefflen 2-1 in Oberliga - Promotion Round on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Babelsberg in Dillingen.