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Diambars vs Jaraaf — Ligue 1 2019

Diambars
Diambars
FT
0 – 1
Jaraaf
Jaraaf
2/8/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 9Stade Fodé Wade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Diambars36%
×Draw33%
Jaraaf31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diambars
0.96
Jaraaf
0.86

Diambars creates 12% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 89 away

creates per match

Diambars
1.24
Jaraaf
0.94

allows per match

Diambars
0.78
Jaraaf
0.67

finishing

Diambars+0.00on par
Jaraaf+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diambars ↓

Jaraaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Diambars or draw
69%
Diambars or Jaraaf
67%
Draw or Jaraaf
64%

Winning margin

Diambars wins by 2+
13%
Jaraaf wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Diambars 1+ goals
62%
Diambars 2+ goals
25%
Diambars 3+ goals
7%
Jaraaf 1+ goals
58%
Jaraaf 2+ goals
21%
Jaraaf 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Diambars (draw refunded)
54%
Jaraaf (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diambars at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.78 · 58 matches

Jaraaf away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.67 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diambars attack 1.24 + Jaraaf defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Jaraaf attack 0.94 + Diambars defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Diambars scores more
36%
level
33%
Jaraaf scores more
31%

Diambars at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Diambars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Diambars vs Jaraaf

Jaraaf beat Diambars 1-0 in Ligue 1 on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Fodé Wade in Saly.