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Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Anderlecht
Anderlecht
K. Hoggas 33'
M. Vlap 90+4'
F. Amuzu 87'
1/26/2020Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 23Jan Breydel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Cercle Brugge44%
×Draw23%
Anderlecht33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Brugge
1.72
Anderlecht
1.45

Cercle Brugge creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 26 away

creates per match

Cercle Brugge
1.60
Anderlecht
1.36

allows per match

Cercle Brugge
1.54
Anderlecht
1.83

finishing

Cercle Brugge-0.39scores less
Anderlecht-0.21scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

Anderlecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw
67%
Cercle Brugge or Anderlecht
77%
Draw or Anderlecht
56%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
23%
Anderlecht wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
82%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
51%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
25%
Anderlecht 1+ goals
77%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
42%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
57%
Anderlecht (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.54 · 19 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.83 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.60 + Anderlecht defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.72

Anderlecht attack 1.36 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more
44%
level
23%
Anderlecht scores more
33%

Cercle Brugge at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Peter Žulj
33'
K. Hoggas↳ S. Peeters
41'
F. Amuzu← A. Saelemaekers
65'
Lassana Coulibaly
70'
M. Vlap← P. Žulj
75'
Z. Bakkali← J. Doku
79'
M. Eppel← K. Hazard
86'
Zakaria Bakkali
87'
F. Amuzu↳ N. Chadli
90'
Stef Peeters
90'
Kouadio Dabila
90+4'
M. Vlap↳ M. Murillo

Possession

50%Cercle

Shots

17Cercle

Statistics

CercleAnderlecht
Overview
50%Possession50%
17Total Shots5
11Corners4
16Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots5
8On Target3
9Off Target2
Passing
50%Possession50%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
16Fouls12
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides3

Jupiler Pro League: Cercle Brugge 1–2 Anderlecht

Anderlecht beat Cercle Brugge 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on January 26, 2020.

Goals: K. Hoggas (33'), F. Amuzu (87'), M. Vlap (90+4').

Cercle Brugge controlled possession (50%) and registered 17 shots to 5.

The match was played at Jan Breydel Stadium in Bruges.