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Diables Noirs vs Vegas — League #844 2026

Diables Noirs
Diables Noirs
PST
13:00
Vegas
Vegas
11/28/2025League #844League #844 · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Diables Noirs60%
×Draw21%
Vegas18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diables Noirs
2.00
Vegas
1.00

Diables Noirs creates 100% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Diables Noirs
1.67
Vegas
1.33

allows per match

Diables Noirs
0.67
Vegas
2.33

finishing

Diables Noirs+0.00on par
Vegas+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diables Noirs ↓

Vegas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Diables Noirs or draw
82%
Diables Noirs or Vegas
79%
Draw or Vegas
40%

Winning margin

Diables Noirs wins by 2+
36%
Vegas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Diables Noirs 1+ goals
86%
Diables Noirs 2+ goals
59%
Diables Noirs 3+ goals
32%
Vegas 1+ goals
63%
Vegas 2+ goals
26%
Vegas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Diables Noirs (draw refunded)
77%
Vegas (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diables Noirs at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Vegas away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diables Noirs attack 1.67 + Vegas defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Vegas attack 1.33 + Diables Noirs defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Diables Noirs scores more
60%
level
21%
Vegas scores more
18%

Diables Noirs at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Diables Noirs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Diables Noirs host Vegas

November 28, 2025: Diables Noirs take on Vegas in League #844. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.