Dhamk 1–2 Al Shabab: Result & Stats | Pro League

Dhamk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Al Shabab

E. Zelaya 20'

O. Ighalo 39', 12'

3/1/2021

Pro League · Round 21Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Dhamk41%

×Draw27%

Al Shabab32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DhamkExpected goals in this matchAl Shabab

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.15

Dhamk

1.32

Al Shabab

1.15

Dhamk creates 15% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

1.01

creates per match

1.26

1.03

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Dhamk

1.01

Al Shabab

1.26

allows per match

Dhamk

1.03

Al Shabab

1.63

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Dhamk-0.01on par

Al Shabab+0.24scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dhamk ↓

Al Shabab →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dhamk or draw

68%

Dhamk or Al Shabab

73%

Draw or Al Shabab

59%

Winning margin

Dhamk wins by 2+

18%

Al Shabab wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dhamk 1+ goals

73%

Dhamk 2+ goals

38%

Dhamk 3+ goals

15%

Al Shabab 1+ goals

68%

Al Shabab 2+ goals

32%

Al Shabab 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dhamk (draw refunded)

56%

Al Shabab (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dhamk at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.03 · 12 matches

Al Shabab away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.63 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dhamk attack 1.01 + Al Shabab defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.32

Al Shabab attack 1.26 + Dhamk defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dhamk scores more

41%

level

27%

Al Shabab scores more

32%

Dhamk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dhamk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

89

O. Ighalo

Al Shabab · F

8.5

Match Events

12'

O. Ighalo↳ Abdullah Al Zoari

14'

Husain Al-Monassar

20'

E. Zelaya↳ Arif Al-Haydar

39'

O. Ighalo↳ Fábio Martins

45'

Mohammed Harzan MohsenGoal cancelled

46'

Turki Al-Ammar← Hussain Al Monassar

56'

Moteb Al-Harbi← Abdullah Al Zoari

65'

Odion IghaloGoal cancelled

68'

A. Pellegrino← Mohanad Al Najai

68'

Mansor Hamzi← Mohammed Harzan

72'

Fábio Martins

77'

Waleed Hizam Al Enezi← C. Budescu

85'

Zaid Al-Bawardi

85'

Abdulaziz Majrashi← Bader Munshi

87'

Abdulmalek Al Khaibri← É. Banega

90'

Igor Lichnovsky

90'

Cristian GuancaPenalty confirmed

90+3'

Nawaf Al Abid← Fábio Martins

90+3'

Hassan Mohammed Al Tambakti← O. Ighalo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DhamkAl

Overview

37%Possession63%

22Total Shots10

9Corners2

14Fouls10

Shots

22Total Shots10

7On Target4

11Off Target5

4Blocked1

12Inside Box4

10Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

322Total Passes561

251Accurate Passes495

78%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls10

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1