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Dhamk vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC — Pro League 2018

Dhamk
Dhamk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
3/11/2020Pro LeaguePro League · Round 22Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Dhamk25%
×Draw24%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dhamk
1.15
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1.76

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 53% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 126 away

creates per match

Dhamk
1.32
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.29

allows per match

Dhamk
1.23
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0.98

finishing

Dhamk+0.00on par
Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dhamk ↓

Al-Hilal Saudi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dhamk or draw
48%
Dhamk or Al-Hilal Saudi FC
76%
Draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC
75%

Winning margin

Dhamk wins by 2+
10%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Dhamk 1+ goals
68%
Dhamk 2+ goals
32%
Dhamk 3+ goals
11%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals
83%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals
52%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Dhamk (draw refunded)
33%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dhamk at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dhamk attack 1.32 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.15

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.29 + Dhamk defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dhamk scores more
25%
level
24%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more
52%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Dhamk 1–1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Dhamk and Al-Hilal Saudi FC drew 1-1 in Pro League on March 11, 2020.

The match was played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Abha.