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Deutschlandsberger SC vs Bad Gleichenberg — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Deutschlandsberger SC
Deutschlandsberger SC
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Bad Gleichenberg
Bad Gleichenberg
9/15/2020Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 4Koralmstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Deutschlandsberger SC50%
×Draw21%
Bad Gleichenberg29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deutschlandsberger SC
2.10
Bad Gleichenberg
1.56

Deutschlandsberger SC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 75 away

creates per match

Deutschlandsberger SC
2.17
Bad Gleichenberg
1.75

allows per match

Deutschlandsberger SC
1.37
Bad Gleichenberg
2.04

finishing

Deutschlandsberger SC+0.00on par
Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deutschlandsberger SC ↓

Bad Gleichenberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Deutschlandsberger SC or draw
71%
Deutschlandsberger SC or Bad Gleichenberg
79%
Draw or Bad Gleichenberg
50%

Winning margin

Deutschlandsberger SC wins by 2+
29%
Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deutschlandsberger SC 1+ goals
88%
Deutschlandsberger SC 2+ goals
62%
Deutschlandsberger SC 3+ goals
35%
Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals
79%
Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals
46%
Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Deutschlandsberger SC (draw refunded)
63%
Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deutschlandsberger SC at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.37 · 105 matches

Bad Gleichenberg away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.04 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deutschlandsberger SC attack 2.17 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.10

Bad Gleichenberg attack 1.75 + Deutschlandsberger SC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deutschlandsberger SC scores more
50%
level
21%
Bad Gleichenberg scores more
29%

Deutschlandsberger SC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deutschlandsberger SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deutschlandsberger SC vs Bad Gleichenberg

Bad Gleichenberg beat Deutschlandsberger SC 3-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on September 15, 2020.

The match was played at Koralmstadion in Deutschlandsberg.