SC Braga 1–2 Guimaraes: Result & Stats

SC Braga

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Guimaraes

N. Stojiljković 90+3'

Tiquinho 16'

Josué Sá 10'

1/22/2017

Primeira Liga · Round 18Estádio Municipal de Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

SC Braga53%

×Draw24%

Guimaraes22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC BragaExpected goals in this matchGuimaraes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.98

SC Braga

1.67

Guimaraes

0.98

SC Braga creates 70% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 32 away

1.98

creates per match

1.10

0.86

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

SC Braga

1.98

Guimaraes

1.10

allows per match

SC Braga

0.86

Guimaraes

1.36

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

SC Braga+0.20scores more

Guimaraes-0.07on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Braga ↓

Guimaraes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

SC Braga or draw

78%

SC Braga or Guimaraes

76%

Draw or Guimaraes

47%

Winning margin

SC Braga wins by 2+

29%

Guimaraes wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

SC Braga 1+ goals

81%

SC Braga 2+ goals

50%

SC Braga 3+ goals

23%

Guimaraes 1+ goals

62%

Guimaraes 2+ goals

26%

Guimaraes 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

SC Braga (draw refunded)

71%

Guimaraes (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Braga at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.86 · 33 matches

Guimaraes away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.36 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Braga attack 1.98 + Guimaraes defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.67

Guimaraes attack 1.10 + SC Braga defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SC Braga scores more

53%

level

24%

Guimaraes scores more

22%

SC Braga at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SC Braga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Pedrão

Guimaraes · D

7.6

Match Events

10'

Josué Sá↳ Pedrão

16'

Tiquinho↳ Bruno Gaspar

25'

31'

34'

46'

54'

58'

62'

Ricardo Horta← L. Rosić

62'

Alan← Pedro Santos

66'

Nikola Vukčević

67'

Douglas Jesus

76'

B. Mensah← P. Hurtado

83'

Rúben Ferreira← Raphael

86'

86'

86'

90'

90'

90+3'

N. Stojiljković↳ Paulinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SCGuimaraes

Overview

67%Possession33%

14Total Shots8

8Corners4

20Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots8

3On Target5

7Off Target2

4Blocked1

7Inside Box7

7Outside Box1

Passing

67%Possession33%

434Total Passes221

352Accurate Passes140

81%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls18

6Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

3Offsides3