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Detonit Plachkovica vs Ohrid — Second League 2019

Detonit Plachkovica
Detonit Plachkovica
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ohrid
Ohrid
11/25/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 13Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Detonit Plachkovica51%
×Draw27%
Ohrid22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Detonit Plachkovica
1.43
Ohrid
0.82

Detonit Plachkovica creates 74% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 80 away

creates per match

Detonit Plachkovica
1.59
Ohrid
0.93

allows per match

Detonit Plachkovica
0.71
Ohrid
1.26

finishing

Detonit Plachkovica+0.00on par
Ohrid+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Detonit Plachkovica ↓

Ohrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Detonit Plachkovica or draw
78%
Detonit Plachkovica or Ohrid
73%
Draw or Ohrid
49%

Winning margin

Detonit Plachkovica wins by 2+
26%
Ohrid wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Detonit Plachkovica 1+ goals
76%
Detonit Plachkovica 2+ goals
42%
Detonit Plachkovica 3+ goals
17%
Ohrid 1+ goals
56%
Ohrid 2+ goals
20%
Ohrid 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Detonit Plachkovica (draw refunded)
70%
Ohrid (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Detonit Plachkovica at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.71 · 59 matches

Ohrid away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Detonit Plachkovica attack 1.59 + Ohrid defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ohrid attack 0.93 + Detonit Plachkovica defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Detonit Plachkovica scores more
51%
level
27%
Ohrid scores more
22%

Detonit Plachkovica at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Detonit Plachkovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Detonit Plachkovica 1–0 Ohrid

Detonit Plachkovica beat Ohrid 1-0 in Second League on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Radovish.