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Desportivo Huíla vs Cuando Cubango — Girabola 2019

Desportivo Huíla
Desportivo Huíla
FT
1 – 1
Cuando Cubango
Cuando Cubango
12/7/2019GirabolaGirabola · Round 14Estádio Provincial da Huíla (Ferroviário) (Lubango)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Desportivo Huíla53%
×Draw27%
Cuando Cubango19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Desportivo Huíla
1.41
Cuando Cubango
0.72

Desportivo Huíla creates 96% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 50 away

creates per match

Desportivo Huíla
1.32
Cuando Cubango
0.80

allows per match

Desportivo Huíla
0.64
Cuando Cubango
1.50

finishing

Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par
Cuando Cubango+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Huíla ↓

Cuando Cubango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Desportivo Huíla or draw
81%
Desportivo Huíla or Cuando Cubango
73%
Draw or Cuando Cubango
47%

Winning margin

Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+
27%
Cuando Cubango wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals
76%
Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals
41%
Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals
17%
Cuando Cubango 1+ goals
51%
Cuando Cubango 2+ goals
16%
Cuando Cubango 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)
74%
Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Huíla at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.64 · 101 matches

Cuando Cubango away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Huíla attack 1.32 + Cuando Cubango defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Cuando Cubango attack 0.80 + Desportivo Huíla defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Desportivo Huíla scores more
53%
level
27%
Cuando Cubango scores more
19%

Desportivo Huíla at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Desportivo Huíla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Desportivo Huíla 1 – 1 Cuando Cubango

Desportivo Huíla and Cuando Cubango drew 1-1 in Girabola on December 7, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Provincial da Huíla (Ferroviário) (Lubango).