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Desportivo Brasil U20 vs EC São Bernardo U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Desportivo Brasil U20
Desportivo Brasil U20
Preview
18:00
EC São Bernardo U20
EC São Bernardo U20
8/14/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 12
48%
Desportivo Brasil U20
model favours
48%25%27%

Desportivo Brasil U20 score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Desportivo Brasil U2048%
×Draw25%
EC São Bernardo U2027%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Desportivo Brasil U20
1.61
EC São Bernardo U20
1.14

Desportivo Brasil U20 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

creates per match

Desportivo Brasil U20
1.92
EC São Bernardo U20
1.15

allows per match

Desportivo Brasil U20
1.12
EC São Bernardo U20
1.30

finishing

Desportivo Brasil U20+0.00on par
EC São Bernardo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Brasil U20 ↓

EC São Bernardo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Desportivo Brasil U20 or draw
73%
Desportivo Brasil U20 or EC São Bernardo U20
75%
Draw or EC São Bernardo U20
52%

Winning margin

Desportivo Brasil U20 wins by 2+
25%
EC São Bernardo U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Desportivo Brasil U20 1+ goals
80%
Desportivo Brasil U20 2+ goals
48%
Desportivo Brasil U20 3+ goals
22%
EC São Bernardo U20 1+ goals
68%
EC São Bernardo U20 2+ goals
32%
EC São Bernardo U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Brasil U20 (draw refunded)
64%
EC São Bernardo U20 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Brasil U20 at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.12 · 25 matches

EC São Bernardo U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Brasil U20 attack 1.92 + EC São Bernardo U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.61

EC São Bernardo U20 attack 1.15 + Desportivo Brasil U20 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Desportivo Brasil U20 scores more
48%
level
25%
EC São Bernardo U20 scores more
27%

Desportivo Brasil U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Desportivo Brasil U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 18% of Desportivo Brasil U20’s matches
  • 73% of Desportivo Brasil U20’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 70% of EC São Bernardo U20’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Desportivo Brasil U20 sit 14, EC São Bernardo U20 39 in the table
  • Desportivo Brasil U20 and EC São Bernardo U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WLWLW
U20
DLLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Desportivo Brasil U20 host EC São Bernardo U20

August 14, 2026: Desportivo Brasil U20 take on EC São Bernardo U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.