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Des Moines Menace vs Green Bay Voyageurs — USL League Two 2018

Des Moines Menace
Des Moines Menace
PST
00:30
Green Bay Voyageurs
Green Bay Voyageurs
6/13/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 28Drake Stadium (Des Moines)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Des Moines Menace73%
×Draw16%
Green Bay Voyageurs11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Des Moines Menace
2.67
Green Bay Voyageurs
0.97

Des Moines Menace creates 175% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 9 away

creates per match

Des Moines Menace
3.22
Green Bay Voyageurs
1.00

allows per match

Des Moines Menace
0.94
Green Bay Voyageurs
2.11

finishing

Des Moines Menace+0.00on par
Green Bay Voyageurs+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Des Moines Menace ↓

Green Bay Voyageurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Des Moines Menace or draw
89%
Des Moines Menace or Green Bay Voyageurs
84%
Draw or Green Bay Voyageurs
27%

Winning margin

Des Moines Menace wins by 2+
52%
Green Bay Voyageurs wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Des Moines Menace 1+ goals
93%
Des Moines Menace 2+ goals
74%
Des Moines Menace 3+ goals
49%
Green Bay Voyageurs 1+ goals
62%
Green Bay Voyageurs 2+ goals
25%
Green Bay Voyageurs 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)
86%
Green Bay Voyageurs (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Des Moines Menace at home — creates 3.22, concedes 0.94 · 50 matches

Green Bay Voyageurs away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Des Moines Menace attack 3.22 + Green Bay Voyageurs defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.67

Green Bay Voyageurs attack 1.00 + Des Moines Menace defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Des Moines Menace scores more
73%
level
16%
Green Bay Voyageurs scores more
11%

Des Moines Menace at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Des Moines Menace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Des Moines Menace host Green Bay Voyageurs

June 13, 2020: Des Moines Menace take on Green Bay Voyageurs in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Des Moines Menace host Green Bay Voyageurs at Drake Stadium (Des Moines).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.