Derry City 1–2 Waterford: Result & Stats

Derry City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Waterford

P. Hoban 64' (pen)

K. Radkowski 39'

K. White 9'

2/28/2025

Premier Division · Round 3The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Derry City62%

×Draw22%

Waterford17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Derry CityExpected goals in this matchWaterford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.89

Derry City

1.94

Waterford

0.89

Derry City creates 118% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.87

creates per match

0.93

0.84

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Derry City

1.87

Waterford

0.93

allows per match

Derry City

0.84

Waterford

2.00

+0.93scores more than expected

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

Derry City+0.93scores more

Waterford+0.27scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City ↓

Waterford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Derry City or draw

83%

Derry City or Waterford

78%

Draw or Waterford

38%

Winning margin

Derry City wins by 2+

37%

Waterford wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Derry City 1+ goals

86%

Derry City 2+ goals

58%

Derry City 3+ goals

30%

Waterford 1+ goals

59%

Waterford 2+ goals

22%

Waterford 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Derry City (draw refunded)

79%

Waterford (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.84 · 5 matches

Waterford away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City attack 1.87 + Waterford defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Waterford attack 0.93 + Derry City defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Derry City scores more

62%

level

22%

Waterford scores more

17%

Derry City at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Derry City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. McMullan

Waterford · G

8.2

Match Events

9'

18'

39'

59'

59'

59'

B. Doherty← S. Ferguson

59'

S. Todd← C. Harkin

64'

P. HobanPenalty

67'

68'

73'

74'

75'

75'

S. Glenfield← K. White

90'

Ben Doherty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerryWaterford

Overview

71%Possession29%

15Total Shots9

7Corners1

16Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots9

7On Target5

6Off Target3

2Blocked1

14Inside Box6

1Outside Box3

Passing

71%Possession29%

499Total Passes215

390Accurate Passes118

78%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

16Fouls17

6Yellow Cards0

3Offsides2