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Derry City vs Waterford — Premier Division 2019

Derry City
Derry City
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Waterford
Waterford
3/8/2024Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 5The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Derry City62%
×Draw21%
Waterford16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derry City
1.97
Waterford
0.89

Derry City creates 121% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Derry City
1.94
Waterford
0.93

allows per match

Derry City
0.84
Waterford
2.00

finishing

Derry City+0.49scores more
Waterford+0.27scores more

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City ↓

Waterford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Derry City or draw
84%
Derry City or Waterford
79%
Draw or Waterford
38%

Winning margin

Derry City wins by 2+
38%
Waterford wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Derry City 1+ goals
86%
Derry City 2+ goals
58%
Derry City 3+ goals
31%
Waterford 1+ goals
59%
Waterford 2+ goals
22%
Waterford 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Derry City (draw refunded)
79%
Waterford (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.84 · 7 matches

Waterford away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City attack 1.94 + Waterford defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.97

Waterford attack 0.93 + Derry City defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Derry City scores more
62%
level
21%
Waterford scores more
16%

Derry City at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Derry City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Derry City vs Waterford

Derry City beat Waterford 3-0 in Premier Division on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Londonderry.