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Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. — Premier Division 2025

Derry City
Derry City
Preview
18:45
St Patrick's Athl.
St Patrick's Athl.
10/9/2026Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 33The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium
Big match
46%
Derry City
model favours
46%27%26%

St Patrick's Athl. score first in only 26% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Derry City46%
×Draw27%
St Patrick's Athl.26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derry City
1.38
St Patrick's Athl.
0.97

Derry City creates 42% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 30 away

creates per match

Derry City
1.66
St Patrick's Athl.
0.87

allows per match

Derry City
1.06
St Patrick's Athl.
1.10

finishing

Derry City+0.00on par
St Patrick's Athl.+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City ↓

St Patrick's Athl. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Derry City or draw
74%
Derry City or St Patrick's Athl.
73%
Draw or St Patrick's Athl.
54%

Winning margin

Derry City wins by 2+
22%
St Patrick's Athl. wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Derry City 1+ goals
75%
Derry City 2+ goals
40%
Derry City 3+ goals
16%
St Patrick's Athl. 1+ goals
62%
St Patrick's Athl. 2+ goals
25%
St Patrick's Athl. 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Derry City (draw refunded)
64%
St Patrick's Athl. (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.06 · 32 matches

St Patrick's Athl. away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City attack 1.66 + St Patrick's Athl. defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.38

St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.87 + Derry City defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Derry City scores more
46%
level
27%
St Patrick's Athl. scores more
26%

Derry City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Derry City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Derry City have scored in 8 games running
  • 74% of St Patrick's Athl.’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 26% of St Patrick's Athl.’s matches
  • Both teams score in 71% of Derry City’s matches
  • St Patrick's Athl. win just 18% of their away games
  • Even after scoring first, Derry City win only 50%

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Derry City
Defensively solid
St Patrick's Athl.
Defensively solid
53%Possession52%
73%Pass accuracy80%
12.4ShotsBiggest gap15.2
1.26xG1.22
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Derry CitySt Patrick's Athl.

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Derry City
3
Draws
1
St Patrick's Athl.
Avg goals: 1.3BTTS: 17%
0–00–02–21–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
LLLWD
Athl.
LDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. — Match Preview

Derry City face St Patrick's Athl. on October 9, 2026 in this Premier Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Derry City host St Patrick's Athl. at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.