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Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers — Premier Division 2025

Derry City
Derry City
Preview
18:45
Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers
8/28/2026Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 29The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium
Big match
44%
Derry City
model favours
44%26%30%

Shamrock Rovers score first in only 26% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Derry City44%
×Draw26%
Shamrock Rovers30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derry City
1.43
Shamrock Rovers
1.13

Derry City creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Derry City
1.87
Shamrock Rovers
1.41

allows per match

Derry City
0.84
Shamrock Rovers
0.98

finishing

Derry City+0.93scores more
Shamrock Rovers-0.41scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City ↓

Shamrock Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Derry City or draw
70%
Derry City or Shamrock Rovers
74%
Draw or Shamrock Rovers
56%

Winning margin

Derry City wins by 2+
21%
Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Derry City 1+ goals
76%
Derry City 2+ goals
42%
Derry City 3+ goals
17%
Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals
68%
Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals
31%
Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Derry City (draw refunded)
60%
Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.84 · 5 matches

Shamrock Rovers away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.98 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City attack 1.87 + Shamrock Rovers defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.43

Shamrock Rovers attack 1.41 + Derry City defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Derry City scores more
44%
level
26%
Shamrock Rovers scores more
30%

Derry City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Derry City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Derry City have scored in 8 games running
  • Both teams score in 71% of Derry City’s matches
  • Even after scoring first, Derry City win only 50%
  • 38% of Shamrock Rovers’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 38% of Derry City’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Derry City outscore their xG (1.8 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Derry City
Defensively solid
Shamrock Rovers
Defensively solid
54%PossessionBiggest gap64%
73%Pass accuracy84%
12.7Shots15.1
1.34xG1.36
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Derry CityShamrock Rovers

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

3
Derry City
2
Draws
3
Shamrock Rovers
Avg goals: 1.6BTTS: 38%
1–11–00–11–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
LLLWD
Rovers
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derry City face Shamrock Rovers (Premier Division)

Premier Division returns with Derry City hosting Shamrock Rovers. Match starts August 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Derry City host Shamrock Rovers at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.