Derry City 1–2 Shamrock Rovers: Result & Stats

Derry City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Shamrock Rovers

D. Mullen 65'

A. McEneff 89'

M. Noonan 70'

5/23/2025

Premier Division · Round 17The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Derry City41%

×Draw27%

Shamrock Rovers32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Derry CityExpected goals in this matchShamrock Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.14

Derry City

1.34

Shamrock Rovers

1.14

Derry City creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.70

creates per match

1.41

0.87

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Derry City

1.70

Shamrock Rovers

1.41

allows per match

Derry City

0.87

Shamrock Rovers

0.98

+0.80scores more than expected

finishing

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

Derry City+0.80scores more

Shamrock Rovers-0.41scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City ↓

Shamrock Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Derry City or draw

68%

Derry City or Shamrock Rovers

73%

Draw or Shamrock Rovers

59%

Winning margin

Derry City wins by 2+

19%

Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Derry City 1+ goals

74%

Derry City 2+ goals

39%

Derry City 3+ goals

15%

Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals

68%

Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals

32%

Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Derry City (draw refunded)

57%

Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.87 · 6 matches

Shamrock Rovers away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.98 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City attack 1.70 + Shamrock Rovers defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.34

Shamrock Rovers attack 1.41 + Derry City defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Derry City scores more

41%

level

27%

Shamrock Rovers scores more

32%

Derry City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Derry City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

D. Mullen

Derry City · F

8.2

Match Events

7'

Cory O'Sullivan

9'

Carl Winchester

15'

Liam Boyce

19'

J. Honohan← C. O'Sullivan

59'

Adam O'Reilly

60'

D. Mullen← L. Boyce

61'

P. McMullan← G. Whyte

64'

D. Watts← G. Burke

64'

D. Mandroiu← D. Nugent

65'

M. Noonan← A. Greene

65'

D. Mullen↳ P. McMullan

70'

M. Noonan

77'

B. Doherty← S. Ferguson

77'

A. McEneff← J. Byrne

85'

P. Hoban← M. Duffy

85'

R. Benson← A. O'Reilly

89'

Aaron McEneff

89'

A. McEneff↳ D. Grant

90+4'

Dan Cleary

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerryShamrock

Overview

40%Possession60%

10Total Shots12

7Corners2

10Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots12

4On Target6

4Off Target4

2Blocked2

9Inside Box6

1Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

350Total Passes550

261Accurate Passes463

75%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides5