Derry City 3–0 Drogheda United: Result & Stats

Derry City

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Drogheda United

D. Mullen 90'

R. Boyce 36'

S. Todd 33'

6/27/2025

Premier Division · Round 22The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Derry City58%

×Draw23%

Drogheda United19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Derry CityExpected goals in this matchDrogheda United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.92

Derry City

1.79

Drogheda United

0.92

Derry City creates 95% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.70

creates per match

0.96

0.87

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Derry City

1.70

Drogheda United

0.96

allows per match

Derry City

0.87

Drogheda United

1.88

+0.80scores more than expected

finishing

+0.64scores more than expected

finishing

Derry City+0.80scores more

Drogheda United+0.64scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City ↓

Drogheda United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Derry City or draw

81%

Derry City or Drogheda United

77%

Draw or Drogheda United

42%

Winning margin

Derry City wins by 2+

33%

Drogheda United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Derry City 1+ goals

83%

Derry City 2+ goals

53%

Derry City 3+ goals

26%

Drogheda United 1+ goals

60%

Drogheda United 2+ goals

23%

Drogheda United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Derry City (draw refunded)

75%

Drogheda United (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.87 · 6 matches

Drogheda United away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.88 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City attack 1.70 + Drogheda United defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.79

Drogheda United attack 0.96 + Derry City defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Derry City scores more

58%

level

23%

Drogheda United scores more

19%

Derry City at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Derry City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Duffy

Derry City

8.6

Match Events

33'

S. Todd↳ M. Duffy

36'

38'

55'

55'

57'

60'

D. Markey← S. Farrell

60'

D. Kareem← T. Oluwa

63'

A. O'Reilly← S. Diallo

75'

R. Benson← L. Boyce

75'

D. Mullen← G. Whyte

76'

P. McMullan← C. Winchester

77'

Scott Brady

88'

B. Bosakani← D. James-Taylor

90'

D. Mullen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerryDrogheda

Overview

73%Possession27%

20Total Shots7

5Corners1

8Fouls8

Shots

20Total Shots7

7On Target1

7Off Target3

6Blocked3

12Inside Box5

8Outside Box2

Passing

73%Possession27%

741Total Passes269

633Accurate Passes165

85%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls8

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2