Derry City 1–0 Bohemians: Result & Stats

Derry City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bohemians

M. Duffy 10'

2/21/2025

Premier Division · Round 2The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Derry City39%

×Draw26%

Bohemians35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Derry CityExpected goals in this matchBohemians

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.27

Derry City

1.36

Bohemians

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

1.66

creates per match

1.47

1.06

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Derry City

1.66

Bohemians

1.47

allows per match

Derry City

1.06

Bohemians

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Derry City+0.00on par

Bohemians+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City ↓

Bohemians →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Derry City or draw

65%

Derry City or Bohemians

74%

Draw or Bohemians

61%

Winning margin

Derry City wins by 2+

18%

Bohemians wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Derry City 1+ goals

74%

Derry City 2+ goals

39%

Derry City 3+ goals

16%

Bohemians 1+ goals

72%

Bohemians 2+ goals

36%

Bohemians 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Derry City (draw refunded)

53%

Bohemians (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.06 · 32 matches

Bohemians away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City attack 1.66 + Bohemians defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bohemians attack 1.47 + Derry City defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Derry City scores more

39%

level

26%

Bohemians scores more

35%

Derry City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Derry City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Duffy

Derry City

7.9

Match Events

10'

13'

18'

21'

46'

S. Grehan← R. Cornwall

60'

A. McDonnell← N. Morahan

60'

D. Rooney← R. Brennan

61'

R. Benson← S. Diallo

61'

B. Doherty← S. Ferguson

65'

Adam McDonnell

71'

K. Buckley← K. Best

72'

C. Whelan← L. Mousset

73'

P. Hoban← L. Boyce

82'

P. McMullan← D. Thomas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerryBohemians

Overview

44%Possession56%

9Total Shots8

4Corners2

13Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots8

3On Target1

5Off Target7

1Blocked0

3Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

337Total Passes425

206Accurate Passes313

61%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2