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Deren vs Erchim — Premier League 2020

Deren
Deren
FT
5 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Erchim
Erchim
5/2/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Deren47%
×Draw20%
Erchim33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deren
2.38
Erchim
1.99

Deren creates 20% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 65 away

creates per match

Deren
2.82
Erchim
2.74

allows per match

Deren
1.23
Erchim
1.95

finishing

Deren+0.00on par
Erchim+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deren ↓

Erchim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Deren or draw
67%
Deren or Erchim
80%
Draw or Erchim
53%

Winning margin

Deren wins by 2+
28%
Erchim wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Deren 1+ goals
91%
Deren 2+ goals
68%
Deren 3+ goals
42%
Erchim 1+ goals
86%
Erchim 2+ goals
59%
Erchim 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Deren (draw refunded)
59%
Erchim (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deren at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

Erchim away — creates 2.74, concedes 1.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deren attack 2.82 + Erchim defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.38

Erchim attack 2.74 + Deren defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deren scores more
47%
level
20%
Erchim scores more
33%

Deren at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deren vs Erchim

Deren beat Erchim 5-0 in Premier League on May 2, 2023.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.