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Derby vs Wolves — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
Preview
11:30
Wolves
Wolves
5/1/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 46Pride Park
37%
Derby
model favours
37%27%36%

Wolves score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Derby37%
×Draw27%
Wolves36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.23
Wolves
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 7 away

creates per match

Derby
1.31
Wolves
1.14

allows per match

Derby
1.27
Wolves
1.14

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Derby or draw
64%
Derby or Wolves
73%
Draw or Wolves
63%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
16%
Wolves wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
71%
Derby 2+ goals
35%
Derby 3+ goals
13%
Wolves 1+ goals
70%
Wolves 2+ goals
34%
Wolves 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
51%
Wolves (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Wolves away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.31 + Wolves defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Wolves attack 1.14 + Derby defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Derby scores more
37%
level
27%
Wolves scores more
36%

Derby at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Wolves win just 0% of their away games
  • 38% of Wolves’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Derby and Wolves have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Derby
LWLWL
Wolves
DDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Derby host Wolves

May 1, 2027: Derby take on Wolves in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Derby host Wolves at Pride Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.