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Derby vs West Brom — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
Preview
18:45
West Brom
West Brom
9/9/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 6Pride Park
Big match
44%
West Brom
model favours
27%28%44%

West Brom score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Derby27%
×Draw28%
West Brom44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
0.94
West Brom
1.28

West Brom creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

creates per match

Derby
1.07
West Brom
1.44

allows per match

Derby
1.12
West Brom
0.81

finishing

Derby+0.16scores more
West Brom-0.56scores less

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Derby or draw
56%
Derby or West Brom
72%
Draw or West Brom
73%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
10%
West Brom wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
61%
Derby 2+ goals
24%
Derby 3+ goals
7%
West Brom 1+ goals
72%
West Brom 2+ goals
37%
West Brom 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
38%
West Brom (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.12 · 13 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.81 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.07 + West Brom defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.94

West Brom attack 1.44 + Derby defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Derby scores more
27%
level
28%
West Brom scores more
44%

West Brom at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Style contrast — Derby play Direct / counter-attacking, West Brom Possession-dominant
  • Derby sit 8, West Brom 19 in the table
  • West Brom fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Derby
Direct / counter-attacking
West Brom
Possession-dominant
45%Possession55%
74%Pass accuracy82%
10.3Shots13.8
1.08xGBiggest gap1.49
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
DerbyWest Brom

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Derby
2
Draws
0
West Brom
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 80%
1–11–01–13–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Derby
LWLWL
Brom
WLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derby face West Brom (Championship)

Championship returns with Derby hosting West Brom. Match starts September 9, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Derby host West Brom at Pride Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.