Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Derby vs West Brom — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
West Brom
West Brom
C. Kazim-Richards 58'
12/27/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 24Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 46+ matches

Derby40%
×Draw28%
West Brom32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.23
West Brom
1.08

Derby creates 14% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 56 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
West Brom
1.15

allows per match

Derby
1.01
West Brom
1.23

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
West Brom-0.02on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Derby or draw
68%
Derby or West Brom
72%
Draw or West Brom
60%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
17%
West Brom wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
71%
Derby 2+ goals
35%
Derby 3+ goals
13%
West Brom 1+ goals
66%
West Brom 2+ goals
29%
West Brom 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
55%
West Brom (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + West Brom defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

West Brom attack 1.15 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Derby scores more
40%
level
28%
West Brom scores more
32%

Derby at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
R. AllsopDerbyDerby · G
8.3

Match Events

18'
Curtis Davies
20'
Liam Thompson
36'
Matthew Clarke
50'
Richard Stearman
57'
C. Kazim-Richards← L. Plange
57'
R. Morrison← S. Baldock
58'
C. Kazim-Richards
62'
T. Fellows← A. Reach
63'
J. Hugill← G. Diangana
76'
T. Gardner-Hickman← D. Furlong
88'
E. Cashin← F. Ebosele
90+5'
Eiran Joe Cashin

Possession

39%Derby

Shots

3Derby

Pass accuracy

44%Derby

Statistics

DerbyWest
Overview
39%Possession61%
3Total Shots19
2Corners4
14Fouls9
Shots
3Total Shots19
1On Target5
2Off Target7
0Blocked7
1Inside Box11
2Outside Box8
Passing
39%Possession61%
278Total Passes426
152Accurate Passes302
55%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
5Saves0
Discipline
14Fouls9
4Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Championship: Derby 1–0 West Brom

Derby beat West Brom 1-0 in Championship on December 27, 2021.

Goals: C. Kazim-Richards (58').

West Brom controlled possession (61%) and registered 19 shots to 3.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.