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Derby vs West Brom — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
West Brom
West Brom
8/24/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 5Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 39+ matches

Derby39%
×Draw28%
West Brom33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.21
West Brom
1.10

Derby creates 10% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 40 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
West Brom
1.19

allows per match

Derby
1.01
West Brom
1.21

finishing

Derby+0.06on par
West Brom-0.06on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Derby or draw
67%
Derby or West Brom
72%
Draw or West Brom
61%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
17%
West Brom wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
70%
Derby 2+ goals
34%
Derby 3+ goals
12%
West Brom 1+ goals
67%
West Brom 2+ goals
30%
West Brom 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
54%
West Brom (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 39 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + West Brom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

West Brom attack 1.19 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Derby scores more
39%
level
28%
West Brom scores more
33%

Derby at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Derby 1–1 West Brom

Derby and West Brom drew 1-1 in Championship on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.