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Derby vs Swansea — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Swansea
Swansea
10/2/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 46+ matches

Derby43%
×Draw27%
Swansea29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.35
Swansea
1.06

Derby creates 27% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 55 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
Swansea
1.10

allows per match

Derby
1.01
Swansea
1.48

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Swansea-0.03on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Derby or draw
71%
Derby or Swansea
73%
Draw or Swansea
57%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
20%
Swansea wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
74%
Derby 2+ goals
39%
Derby 3+ goals
15%
Swansea 1+ goals
65%
Swansea 2+ goals
29%
Swansea 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
60%
Swansea (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Swansea defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.35

Swansea attack 1.10 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Derby scores more
43%
level
27%
Swansea scores more
29%

Derby at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
B. HamerSwanseaSwansea · G
7.9

Match Events

39'
L. Buchanan← R. Stearman
45'
Craig Forsyth
46'
D. Williams← R. Morrison
61'
E. Laird← J. Latibeaudiere
64'
F. Ebosele← J. Stretton
71'
L. Cullen← J. Piroe
81'
Dylan Williams
88'
M. Whittaker← K. Smith
89'
Nathan Byrne

Possession

24%Derby

Shots

6Derby

Pass accuracy

40%Derby

Statistics

DerbySwansea
Overview
24%Possession76%
6Total Shots15
0Corners4
11Fouls10
Shots
6Total Shots15
5On Target2
1Off Target9
0Blocked4
4Inside Box10
2Outside Box5
Passing
24%Possession76%
242Total Passes763
142Accurate Passes663
59%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls10
3Yellow Cards0
2Offsides2

Derby 0 – 0 Swansea

Derby and Swansea drew 0-0 in Championship on October 2, 2021.

Swansea controlled possession (76%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.