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Derby vs Leeds — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Leeds
Leeds
T. Lawrence 12'
E. Alioski 64'
K. Roofe 60', 21'
M. Klich 5'
8/11/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 2Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Derby30%
×Draw28%
Leeds42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.05
Leeds
1.29

Leeds creates 23% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 33 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
Leeds
1.58

allows per match

Derby
1.01
Leeds
0.88

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Leeds-0.06on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Leeds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw
58%
Derby or Leeds
72%
Draw or Leeds
70%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
12%
Leeds wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
65%
Derby 2+ goals
28%
Derby 3+ goals
9%
Leeds 1+ goals
72%
Leeds 2+ goals
37%
Leeds 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
42%
Leeds (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.88 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Leeds defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.05

Leeds attack 1.58 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Derby scores more
30%
level
28%
Leeds scores more
42%

Leeds at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
K. RoofeLeedsLeeds · F
8.2

Match Events

5'
M. Klich↳ Pablo Hernández
12'
T. Lawrence
21'
K. Roofe↳ E. Alioski
41'
Joe Ledley
42'
Richard Keogh
46'
B. Johnson← J. Ledley
60'
K. Roofe↳ M. Klich
61'
F. Jozefzoon← H. Wilson
64'
Martyn Waghorn
64'
E. Alioski↳ Pablo Hernández
73'
J. Shackelton← M. Klich
75'
M. Bennett← M. Mount
79'
P. Bamford← K. Roofe
81'
Max Lowe
86'
L. Baker← Samuel Sáiz
90'
Ezgjan Alioski
90'
Patrick Bamford

Possession

46%Derby

Shots

12Derby

Pass accuracy

49%Derby

Statistics

DerbyLeeds
Overview
46%Possession54%
12Total Shots17
3Corners5
10Fouls19
Shots
12Total Shots17
4On Target7
6Off Target7
2Blocked3
9Inside Box7
3Outside Box10
Passing
46%Possession54%
379Total Passes435
265Accurate Passes321
70%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls19
4Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides4

Derby 1 – 4 Leeds

Leeds beat Derby 4-1 in Championship on August 11, 2018.

Goals: M. Klich (5'), T. Lawrence (12'), K. Roofe (21', 60'), E. Alioski (64').

Leeds controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.