Deportivo Universitario 2–2 Herrera: Result & Stats

Deportivo Universitario

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Herrera

2/5/2022

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 1Complejo Futbolístico Virgilio Tejeira Andrión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Deportivo Universitario43%

×Draw27%

Herrera30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchHerrera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.12

Deportivo Universitario

1.38

Herrera

1.12

Deportivo Universitario creates 23% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 92 away

1.15

creates per match

0.97

1.27

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Deportivo Universitario

1.15

Herrera

0.97

allows per match

Deportivo Universitario

1.27

Herrera

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Universitario+0.00on par

Herrera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Universitario ↓

Herrera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Universitario or draw

70%

Deportivo Universitario or Herrera

73%

Draw or Herrera

57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Universitario wins by 2+

20%

Herrera wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Universitario 1+ goals

75%

Deportivo Universitario 2+ goals

40%

Deportivo Universitario 3+ goals

16%

Herrera 1+ goals

67%

Herrera 2+ goals

31%

Herrera 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Universitario (draw refunded)

58%

Herrera (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Universitario at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 128 matches

Herrera away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.60 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Universitario attack 1.15 + Herrera defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.38

Herrera attack 0.97 + Deportivo Universitario defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Universitario scores more

43%

level

27%

Herrera scores more

30%

Deportivo Universitario at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff