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Deportivo Universitario vs Atlético Chiriquí — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Deportivo Universitario
Deportivo Universitario
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Atlético Chiriquí
Atlético Chiriquí
4/28/2021Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 14Estadio Universitario F.C.

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Deportivo Universitario51%
×Draw25%
Atlético Chiriquí23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Universitario
1.56
Atlético Chiriquí
0.96

Deportivo Universitario creates 63% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 66 away

creates per match

Deportivo Universitario
1.15
Atlético Chiriquí
0.65

allows per match

Deportivo Universitario
1.27
Atlético Chiriquí
1.97

finishing

Deportivo Universitario+0.00on par
Atlético Chiriquí+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Universitario ↓

Atlético Chiriquí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Universitario or draw
77%
Deportivo Universitario or Atlético Chiriquí
75%
Draw or Atlético Chiriquí
49%

Winning margin

Deportivo Universitario wins by 2+
27%
Atlético Chiriquí wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Universitario 1+ goals
79%
Deportivo Universitario 2+ goals
46%
Deportivo Universitario 3+ goals
21%
Atlético Chiriquí 1+ goals
62%
Atlético Chiriquí 2+ goals
25%
Atlético Chiriquí 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Universitario (draw refunded)
69%
Atlético Chiriquí (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Universitario at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 128 matches

Atlético Chiriquí away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.97 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Universitario attack 1.15 + Atlético Chiriquí defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.56

Atlético Chiriquí attack 0.65 + Deportivo Universitario defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Deportivo Universitario scores more
51%
level
25%
Atlético Chiriquí scores more
23%

Deportivo Universitario at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Deportivo Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Panameña de Fútbol: Deportivo Universitario 2–1 Atlético Chiriquí

Deportivo Universitario beat Atlético Chiriquí 2-1 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario F.C. in Penonomé.