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Deportivo Tachira FC vs Rayo Zuliano — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rayo Zuliano
Rayo Zuliano
2/18/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 3Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Deportivo Tachira FC59%
×Draw23%
Rayo Zuliano18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Tachira FC
1.82
Rayo Zuliano
0.90

Deportivo Tachira FC creates 102% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 50 away

creates per match

Deportivo Tachira FC
1.80
Rayo Zuliano
1.06

allows per match

Deportivo Tachira FC
0.73
Rayo Zuliano
1.84

finishing

Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par
Rayo Zuliano+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Tachira FC ↓

Rayo Zuliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Deportivo Tachira FC or draw
82%
Deportivo Tachira FC or Rayo Zuliano
77%
Draw or Rayo Zuliano
41%

Winning margin

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+
34%
Rayo Zuliano wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals
84%
Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals
54%
Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals
27%
Rayo Zuliano 1+ goals
59%
Rayo Zuliano 2+ goals
23%
Rayo Zuliano 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)
76%
Rayo Zuliano (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Tachira FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.73 · 150 matches

Rayo Zuliano away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.84 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.80 + Rayo Zuliano defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.82

Rayo Zuliano attack 1.06 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more
59%
level
23%
Rayo Zuliano scores more
18%

Deportivo Tachira FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Deportivo Tachira FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Tachira FC vs Rayo Zuliano

Deportivo Tachira FC beat Rayo Zuliano 2-1 in Primera División on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo in San Cristóbal.