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Deportivo Tachira FC vs Puerto Cabello — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Puerto Cabello
Puerto Cabello
11/4/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Copa Libertadores Play-off - 4Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 143+ matches

Deportivo Tachira FC51%
×Draw26%
Puerto Cabello22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Tachira FC
1.48
Puerto Cabello
0.88

Deportivo Tachira FC creates 68% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 143 away

creates per match

Deportivo Tachira FC
1.80
Puerto Cabello
1.02

allows per match

Deportivo Tachira FC
0.73
Puerto Cabello
1.16

finishing

Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par
Puerto Cabello+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Tachira FC ↓

Puerto Cabello →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Tachira FC or draw
78%
Deportivo Tachira FC or Puerto Cabello
74%
Draw or Puerto Cabello
49%

Winning margin

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+
26%
Puerto Cabello wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals
43%
Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals
19%
Puerto Cabello 1+ goals
59%
Puerto Cabello 2+ goals
22%
Puerto Cabello 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)
70%
Puerto Cabello (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Tachira FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.73 · 150 matches

Puerto Cabello away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.16 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.80 + Puerto Cabello defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.48

Puerto Cabello attack 1.02 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more
51%
level
26%
Puerto Cabello scores more
22%

Deportivo Tachira FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Deportivo Tachira FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Deportivo Tachira FC 2–1 Puerto Cabello

Deportivo Tachira FC beat Puerto Cabello 2-1 in Primera División on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo in San Cristóbal.