Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Tachira FC vs Llaneros de Guanare — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
Canc
20:00
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
3/8/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 6Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo (San Cristóbal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Deportivo Tachira FC61%
×Draw20%
Llaneros de Guanare18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Tachira FC
2.15
Llaneros de Guanare
1.09

Deportivo Tachira FC creates 97% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 20 away

creates per match

Deportivo Tachira FC
1.80
Llaneros de Guanare
1.45

allows per match

Deportivo Tachira FC
0.73
Llaneros de Guanare
2.50

finishing

Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Tachira FC ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Deportivo Tachira FC or draw
82%
Deportivo Tachira FC or Llaneros de Guanare
80%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
39%

Winning margin

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+
38%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals
88%
Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals
63%
Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals
36%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
66%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
30%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)
77%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Tachira FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.73 · 150 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.80 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.15

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.45 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more
61%
level
20%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
18%

Deportivo Tachira FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Deportivo Tachira FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Tachira FC vs Llaneros de Guanare — Match Preview

Deportivo Tachira FC face Llaneros de Guanare on March 8, 2020 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Deportivo Tachira FC host Llaneros de Guanare at Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo (San Cristóbal).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.