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Deportivo Tachira FC vs Caracas FC — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportivo Tachira FCadvanced
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Caracas FC
Caracas FC
11/25/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Championship - FinalEstadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Deportivo Tachira FC47%
×Draw27%
Caracas FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Tachira FC
1.40
Caracas FC
0.97

Deportivo Tachira FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 146 away

creates per match

Deportivo Tachira FC
1.80
Caracas FC
1.22

allows per match

Deportivo Tachira FC
0.73
Caracas FC
1.00

finishing

Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par
Caracas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Tachira FC ↓

Caracas FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Tachira FC or draw
74%
Deportivo Tachira FC or Caracas FC
73%
Draw or Caracas FC
53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+
23%
Caracas FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals
41%
Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals
17%
Caracas FC 1+ goals
62%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
25%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)
64%
Caracas FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Tachira FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.73 · 150 matches

Caracas FC away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.80 + Caracas FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Caracas FC attack 1.22 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more
47%
level
27%
Caracas FC scores more
26%

Deportivo Tachira FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Tachira FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Deportivo Tachira FC 1–1 Caracas FC

Deportivo Tachira FC and Caracas FC drew 1-1 in Primera División on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo in San Cristóbal.