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Deportivo Santani vs Fulgencio Yegros — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Santani
Deportivo Santani
PST
00:00
Fulgencio Yegros
Fulgencio Yegros
9/27/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 28Estadio Juan José Vázquez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Deportivo Santani46%
×Draw27%
Fulgencio Yegros27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Santani
1.40
Fulgencio Yegros
1.01

Deportivo Santani creates 39% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 48 away

creates per match

Deportivo Santani
1.19
Fulgencio Yegros
0.90

allows per match

Deportivo Santani
1.12
Fulgencio Yegros
1.60

finishing

Deportivo Santani+0.00on par
Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Santani ↓

Fulgencio Yegros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Santani or draw
73%
Deportivo Santani or Fulgencio Yegros
73%
Draw or Fulgencio Yegros
54%

Winning margin

Deportivo Santani wins by 2+
22%
Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo Santani 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo Santani 2+ goals
41%
Deportivo Santani 3+ goals
17%
Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals
64%
Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals
27%
Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Santani (draw refunded)
63%
Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Santani at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.12 · 83 matches

Fulgencio Yegros away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Santani attack 1.19 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.90 + Deportivo Santani defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportivo Santani scores more
46%
level
27%
Fulgencio Yegros scores more
27%

Deportivo Santani at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Santani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Santani vs Fulgencio Yegros — Match Preview

Deportivo Santani face Fulgencio Yegros on September 27, 2020 in this Division Intermedia fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Deportivo Santani host Fulgencio Yegros at Estadio Juan José Vázquez.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.