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Deportivo Santani vs Atyrá — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Santani
Deportivo Santani
FT
1 – 3
Atyrá
Atyrá
7/10/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 17Estadio Juan José Vázquez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Deportivo Santani42%
×Draw27%
Atyrá31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Santani
1.37
Atyrá
1.13

Deportivo Santani creates 21% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 62 away

creates per match

Deportivo Santani
1.19
Atyrá
1.13

allows per match

Deportivo Santani
1.12
Atyrá
1.55

finishing

Deportivo Santani+0.00on par
Atyrá+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Santani ↓

Atyrá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Santani or draw
69%
Deportivo Santani or Atyrá
73%
Draw or Atyrá
58%

Winning margin

Deportivo Santani wins by 2+
20%
Atyrá wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Santani 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo Santani 2+ goals
40%
Deportivo Santani 3+ goals
16%
Atyrá 1+ goals
68%
Atyrá 2+ goals
31%
Atyrá 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Santani (draw refunded)
58%
Atyrá (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Santani at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.12 · 83 matches

Atyrá away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.55 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Santani attack 1.19 + Atyrá defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.37

Atyrá attack 1.13 + Deportivo Santani defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Santani scores more
42%
level
27%
Atyrá scores more
31%

Deportivo Santani at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Santani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Santani vs Atyrá

Atyrá beat Deportivo Santani 3-1 in Division Intermedia on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Juan José Vázquez in San Estanislao.