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Deportivo Sanarate vs Antigua GFC — Liga Nacional 2019

Deportivo Sanarate
Deportivo Sanarate
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Antigua GFC
Antigua GFC
12/12/2019Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Municipal de Sanarate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Deportivo Sanarate41%
×Draw29%
Antigua GFC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Sanarate
1.23
Antigua GFC
1.02

Deportivo Sanarate creates 21% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 156 away

creates per match

Deportivo Sanarate
1.11
Antigua GFC
1.11

allows per match

Deportivo Sanarate
0.92
Antigua GFC
1.35

finishing

Deportivo Sanarate+0.00on par
Antigua GFC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Sanarate ↓

Antigua GFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Sanarate or draw
69%
Deportivo Sanarate or Antigua GFC
71%
Draw or Antigua GFC
59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Sanarate wins by 2+
18%
Antigua GFC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo Sanarate 1+ goals
71%
Deportivo Sanarate 2+ goals
35%
Deportivo Sanarate 3+ goals
13%
Antigua GFC 1+ goals
64%
Antigua GFC 2+ goals
27%
Antigua GFC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Sanarate (draw refunded)
57%
Antigua GFC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Sanarate at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

Antigua GFC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.35 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Sanarate attack 1.11 + Antigua GFC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Antigua GFC attack 1.11 + Deportivo Sanarate defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Sanarate scores more
41%
level
29%
Antigua GFC scores more
31%

Deportivo Sanarate at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Sanarate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Sanarate vs Antigua GFC

Deportivo Sanarate and Antigua GFC drew 0-0 in Liga Nacional on December 12, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Sanarate in Sanarate.