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Deportivo Pereira vs Valledupar — Primera B 2018

Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Valledupar
Valledupar
3/26/2018Primera BPrimera B · Round 6Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas (Pereira)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Deportivo Pereira57%
×Draw26%
Valledupar17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pereira
1.52
Valledupar
0.71

Deportivo Pereira creates 114% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 89 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira
1.57
Valledupar
0.87

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira
0.55
Valledupar
1.46

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par
Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw
83%
Deportivo Pereira or Valledupar
74%
Draw or Valledupar
43%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
30%
Valledupar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
45%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
20%
Valledupar 1+ goals
51%
Valledupar 2+ goals
16%
Valledupar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
77%
Valledupar (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.55 · 40 matches

Valledupar away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.57 + Valledupar defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Valledupar attack 0.87 + Deportivo Pereira defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more
57%
level
26%
Valledupar scores more
17%

Deportivo Pereira at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Pereira vs Valledupar

Deportivo Pereira beat Valledupar 2-0 in Primera B on March 26, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas (Pereira).