Deportivo Pereira vs Jaguares: Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Pereira

Preview

21:00

Jaguares

8/16/2026

Primera A · Clausura - 5Santiago de las Atalayas

Big match

42%

Deportivo Pereira

model favours

42%29%30%

90% of Deportivo Pereira’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

62%

under 2.5 goals

44%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Deportivo Pereira42%

×Draw29%

Jaguares30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PereiraExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.99

Deportivo Pereira

1.23

Jaguares

0.99

Deportivo Pereira creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.09

creates per match

0.68

1.30

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.09

Jaguares

0.68

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.30

Jaguares

1.36

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.36scores more

Jaguares-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw

70%

Deportivo Pereira or Jaguares

71%

Draw or Jaguares

58%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

18%

Jaguares wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

35%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

13%

Jaguares 1+ goals

63%

Jaguares 2+ goals

26%

Jaguares 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

58%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.30 · 11 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.36 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.09 + Jaguares defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.23

Jaguares attack 0.68 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more

42%

level

29%

Jaguares scores more

30%

Deportivo Pereira at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in only 20% of Deportivo Pereira’s matches
Deportivo Pereira raise their game against the top half — 32% wins vs the upper half, only 5% vs the lower

Based on historical data — not a prediction.