Deportivo Pereira 2–1 Jaguares: Result & Stats

Deportivo Pereira

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Jaguares

B. León 53', 9'

J. Viveros 40'

2/16/2022

Primera A · Apertura - 7Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Deportivo Pereira42%

×Draw29%

Jaguares30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PereiraExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.99

Deportivo Pereira

1.23

Jaguares

0.99

Deportivo Pereira creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.09

creates per match

0.68

1.30

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.09

Jaguares

0.68

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.30

Jaguares

1.36

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.36scores more

Jaguares-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw

70%

Deportivo Pereira or Jaguares

71%

Draw or Jaguares

58%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

18%

Jaguares wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

35%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

13%

Jaguares 1+ goals

63%

Jaguares 2+ goals

26%

Jaguares 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

58%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.30 · 11 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.36 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.09 + Jaguares defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.23

Jaguares attack 0.68 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more

42%

level

29%

Jaguares scores more

30%

Deportivo Pereira at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

B. León

Deportivo Pereira · F

8.5

Match Events

9'

B. León

33'

Maicol Balanta

40'

J. Viveros

46'

J. Sinisterra← K. Lugo

53'

B. León↳ Jherson Mosquera

56'

Guillermo Bustamante

63'

Geremías Meléndez

66'

A. Arroyo← D. Padilla

68'

C. Garcés← A. Correa

72'

J. Valencia← B. León

73'

S. Montoya← H. Rojas

76'

Harlin SuárezCard upgrade

77'

Harlin Suárez

78'

D. Restrepo← J. Maza

80'

D. Rodríguez← M. Balanta

80'

J. Castellanos← C. Carrillo

83'

Carlos Garcés

86'

J. Quintero← J. Díaz

88'

Daniel Restrepo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoJaguares

Overview

51%Possession49%

10Total Shots13

2Corners7

11Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots13

4On Target5

3Off Target6

3Blocked2

5Inside Box2

5Outside Box11

Passing

51%Possession49%

374Total Passes351

296Accurate Passes280

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3

Primera A: Deportivo Pereira 2–1 Jaguares

Deportivo Pereira beat Jaguares 2-1 in Primera A on February 16, 2022.

Goals: B. León (9', 53'), J. Viveros (40').

Deportivo Pereira controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.

Deportivo Pereira vs Jaguares — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Deportivo Pereira 2–1 Jaguares