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Deportivo Pereira vs Fortaleza FC — Copa Colombia 2019

Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
5/9/2024Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 3rd RoundEstadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Deportivo Pereira49%
×Draw28%
Fortaleza FC23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pereira
1.33
Fortaleza FC
0.82

Deportivo Pereira creates 62% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 19 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira
1.56
Fortaleza FC
1.05

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira
0.60
Fortaleza FC
1.11

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par
Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Fortaleza FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw
77%
Deportivo Pereira or Fortaleza FC
72%
Draw or Fortaleza FC
51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
23%
Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
74%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
38%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
15%
Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
56%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
20%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
68%
Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.60 · 25 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.56 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fortaleza FC attack 1.05 + Deportivo Pereira defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more
49%
level
28%
Fortaleza FC scores more
23%

Deportivo Pereira at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Deportivo Pereira 0–1 Fortaleza FC

Fortaleza FC beat Deportivo Pereira 1-0 in Copa Colombia on May 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.