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Deportivo Pereira vs Águilas Doradas — Copa Colombia 2019

Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
8/14/2019Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 8th FinalsEstadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas (Pereira)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Deportivo Pereira55%
×Draw25%
Águilas Doradas20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pereira
1.60
Águilas Doradas
0.84

Deportivo Pereira creates 90% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 11 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira
1.56
Águilas Doradas
1.09

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira
0.60
Águilas Doradas
1.64

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw
80%
Deportivo Pereira or Águilas Doradas
75%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
45%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
30%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
80%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
47%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
22%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
57%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
21%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
74%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.60 · 25 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.56 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.60

Águilas Doradas attack 1.09 + Deportivo Pereira defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more
55%
level
25%
Águilas Doradas scores more
20%

Deportivo Pereira at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Pereira vs Águilas Doradas

Deportivo Pereira beat Águilas Doradas 1-0 in Copa Colombia on August 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas (Pereira).