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Deportivo Pasto vs Bogota FC — Copa Colombia 2020

Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto
Preview
00:00
Bogota FC
Bogota FC
7/22/2026Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Play-offsEstadio Departamental Libertad
59%
Deportivo Pasto
model favours
59%23%18%
1–0
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Deportivo Pasto59%
×Draw23%
Bogota FC18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pasto
1.80
Bogota FC
0.89

Deportivo Pasto creates 102% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto
1.90
Bogota FC
0.57

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto
1.20
Bogota FC
1.71

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par
Bogota FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Bogota FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw
82%
Deportivo Pasto or Bogota FC
77%
Draw or Bogota FC
41%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+
34%
Bogota FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals
83%
Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals
54%
Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals
27%
Bogota FC 1+ goals
59%
Bogota FC 2+ goals
22%
Bogota FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)
76%
Bogota FC (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Bogota FC away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.90 + Bogota FC defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.80

Bogota FC attack 0.57 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more
59%
level
23%
Bogota FC scores more
18%

Deportivo Pasto at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Pasto
LLLLW
FC
DLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Pasto vs Bogota FC — Match Preview

Deportivo Pasto face Bogota FC on July 22, 2026 in this Copa Colombia fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Deportivo Pasto host Bogota FC at Estadio Departamental Libertad.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.