Deportivo Pasto 1–2 Atletico Nacional

Deportivo Pasto

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Nacional

D. Moreno 82'

A. Román 90+6', 20'

10/6/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 13Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Deportivo Pasto37%

×Draw31%

Atletico Nacional32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PastoExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.96

Deportivo Pasto

1.06

Atletico Nacional

0.96

Deportivo Pasto creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

1.08

creates per match

1.17

0.75

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto

1.08

Atletico Nacional

1.17

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto

0.75

Atletico Nacional

1.04

+0.55scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.55scores more

Atletico Nacional+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw

68%

Deportivo Pasto or Atletico Nacional

69%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

63%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

15%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

9%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

62%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

25%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

54%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.04 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.08 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Atletico Nacional attack 1.17 + Deportivo Pasto defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more

37%

level

31%

Atletico Nacional scores more

32%

Deportivo Pasto at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

A. Román

Atletico Nacional · D

8.5

Match Events

-5'

Camilo Ayala

13'

G. Torres← R. Vanegas

20'

A. Román↳ M. Hinestroza

44'

Daniel Moreno

45+5'

Israel Alba

46'

Juan Castilla

46'

J. Castilla← M. Castaño

46'

J. Franco← I. Alba

49'

Juan Felipe Aguirre

57'

Juan Zapata

71'

D. Asprilla← A. Sarmiento

71'

J. Campuzano← J. Zapata

76'

S. Tréllez← D. Chávez

76'

P. Ceppelini← E. Cardona

82'

D. Moreno↳ K. Londoño

84'

J. Torres← M. Hinestroza

85'

K. Viveros← A. Morelos

88'

Diego Martínez

90+2'

Cristian Arrieta

90'

C. Arrieta← G. Torres

90+6'

A. Román

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoAtletico

Overview

57%Possession43%

24Total Shots8

8Corners2

17Fouls8

Shots

24Total Shots8

7On Target5

12Off Target2

5Blocked1

12Inside Box3

12Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

430Total Passes331

362Accurate Passes248

84%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

17Fouls8

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

5Offsides0