Deportivo Pasto 0–1 Atletico Nacional

Deportivo Pasto

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Nacional

Y. Candelo 2'

3/5/2023

Primera A · Apertura - 7Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Deportivo Pasto37%

×Draw31%

Atletico Nacional32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PastoExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.96

Deportivo Pasto

1.06

Atletico Nacional

0.96

Deportivo Pasto creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

1.08

creates per match

1.17

0.75

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto

1.08

Atletico Nacional

1.17

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto

0.75

Atletico Nacional

1.04

+0.55scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.55scores more

Atletico Nacional+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw

68%

Deportivo Pasto or Atletico Nacional

69%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

63%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

15%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

9%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

62%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

25%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

54%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.04 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.08 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Atletico Nacional attack 1.17 + Deportivo Pasto defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more

37%

level

31%

Atletico Nacional scores more

32%

Deportivo Pasto at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

H. Castillo

Atletico Nacional · G

8.2

Match Events

2'

46'

59'

66'

72'

73'

75'

77'

81'

83'

83'

D. Moreno← M. Garavito

89'

J. Torres← D. Pabón

89'

C. Devenish← N. Deossa

90+3'

D. López← J. Campaña

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoAtletico

Overview

53%Possession47%

19Total Shots12

8Corners5

11Fouls20

Shots

19Total Shots12

5On Target2

10Off Target7

4Blocked3

11Inside Box4

8Outside Box8

Passing

53%Possession47%

372Total Passes339

310Accurate Passes265

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls20

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1